Into May, China's hot rolled steel cold rolled steel coil market trading situation is general, downstream end-users purchasing willingness is not strong, cold and hot rolled coil prices continue to oscillate slightly, steel traders on the market generally cautious mindset.
In the last two weeks, the price of hot rolled steel coil in the Shanghai market has been more than oscillating, and it has retracted after rising.
May 6, the “May Day” International Labor Day after the first trading day, the Shanghai market of 5.5 mm ~ 11.75 mm × 1500 mm × C hot rolled coil Q235B prices rose to 3,890 rmb/ton, up 50 rmb/ton in one day. And by May 8, the price of the variety fell to 50 yuan/ton.
Cold rolled steel coil, in the last two weeks, in the Shanghai market, cold rolled steel plate prices rose 10 rmb/ton, the supply is relatively sufficient to support the cold rolled steel coil prices are not sufficient conditions.
For the later hot rolled and cold rolled steel coil market sentiment trends, it is expected that in the short term, cold, hot rolled steel plate market will be difficult to have a new start, the price or continue to oscillate downward, but the rate of decline will not be too large, the reasons are mainly the following:
First, the demand has not been significantly released, the overall view is still weak. At present, the hot and cold rolled steel consumption of automobiles, home appliances and other manufacturing industry production and sales have declined. Passenger Car Market Information Association data show that in April, China's passenger car market retail sales reached 1,585,000 units, down 2% year-on-year, down 6% from the previous year; in April, China's heavy truck sales of about 87,000 units (including exports and new energy), down 25% from the previous year.
At present, China's automobile manufacturing industry is under great pressure from competition, most of the enterprises' profitability has declined significantly, and the survival pressure of some enterprises has increased. Fuel cars are profitable, but shrinking faster; new energy vehicles, although maintaining high growth, but with larger losses. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, the demand for hot rolled cold rolled steel coil in the automobile manufacturing industry will decrease.
Second, the market supply pressure still exists, and has not been significantly alleviated. During the “May Day” International Labor Day, some steel trading companies ordered hot cold rolled steel resources have arrived, resulting in increased inventory and sales pressure. At the same time, the steel enterprise inventory pressure is also large, and even in some enterprises of the cold rolled coil plate there is a price upside down sales to digest the inventory.
At the same time as inventory pressure increased, steel production continued to grow. China Iron and Steel Industry Association data show that in late April, the average daily crude steel production of key statistical iron and steel enterprises reached 2,199,400 tons, an increase of 3.80% month-on-month. Li Zhongshuang expects, with the supply of resources to the market, that in the “strong supply and weak demand” situation, steel prices are easy to fall but hard to rise.
Third, the rigid cost support is still strong. In recent times, iron ore, coke, scrap and other raw steel fuel prices remain high. At present, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places coke enterprises are to open the 4th round of increase. Steel raw fuel prices, resulting in increased pressure on steel production costs. Affected by this, steel enterprises determining the ex-factory price of steel is basically to support the main price, which indirectly curbed the late steel prices fell sharply, but whether it can rebound, still needs to wait and see.
Post time: May-15-2024