What will happen to the steel market in the short term?

2024-10-25

Last week (14 October-18 October), China's Steel Price index stood at RMB 3,840 per tonne, down 3.4% from the previous week and down 5.7% from the same period last year.

Specifically, the price index for long products was RMB 3778 per tonne, down 3.9% from the previous week and down 2.9% from the same period last year.

The price index for profile steel was RMB 3,677 per tonne, down 3.5% from the previous week and down 7.5% from the same period last year.

Steel pipe absolute price index for 4408 yuan / tonne, down 1.2% from the previous week, down 2.9% from the same period last year.

Plate price index was RMB 3,820 per tonne, down 3.4% from the previous week and down 8.5% from the same period last year.

Overall, in the first three quarters of this year, in the face of a complex and severe external environment and new circumstances and problems in domestic economic operation, all reGIons and departments of the country have adhered to the general tone of ‘seeking progress while maintaining stability’, stepped up macroeconomic regulation and control, focused on deepening reform and opening up, expanding domestic demand, optimising economic structure, effectively implementing stock policies and stepping up efforts to introduce incremental policies.

The overall operation of the national economy has been stable and steady, with steady growth in production and demand, overall stability in employment and prices, solid and strong livelihood protection, and solid progress in high-quality development.

In September, most of China's production and demand indicators improved, market expectations improved, and positive factors driving the economic recovery continued to grow.

As far as the Chinese steel market is concerned, from the supply side, affected by the expectations of the peak season and the profitability of the varieties, the steel enterprises have increased the release of production capacity, and the iron production has continued to rise, and the performance of the specific varieties of production varies.

China Iron and Steel Industry Association data show that in the first half of October, the average daily Crude Steel production of key statistical steel enterprises reached 2.049 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7% month-on-month.

From the demand side, due to the lack of demand release, the market turnover surface shows obvious instability, end-users ‘buy up not buy down’ mentality is more obvious.

From the cost side, due to the recent slight decline in iron ore prices, scrap prices have fallen, coke prices rose slightly, steel production cost support still has a certain degree of toughness.