How will the price of hot-rolled steel coil change in September?

2025-09-12

Exports remain acceptable in the short term.

Future growth is likely to decline.

Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China exported 9.836 million tons of steel in July 2025, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month and a 1.6% month-on-month increase. From January to July, cumulative steel exports reached 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year-on-year increase. In July, China imported 452,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month and a 3.8% month-on-month decrease. From January to July, cumulative steel imports reached 3.476 million tons, a 15.7% year-on-year decrease.

Despite the tariff war, steel exports continue to grow.

First, export price advantages persist. As of August 29th, US hot-rolled coil CFR (cost and freight) prices were $870/ton, EU hot-rolled coil CFR prices were $555/ton, Chinese hot-rolled coil FOB (free on board) prices were $480/ton, Japanese hot-rolled coil FOB prices were $505/ton, CIS hot-rolled coil FOB prices were $485/ton, and Turkish hot-rolled coil FOB prices were $5/ton to $75/ton. China's prices compared to Europe, the CIS, Japan, and other reGIons are $5/ton to $75/ton lower.

Second, international Crude Steel production is declining.

Data released by the World Steel Association shows that in July 2025, global crude steel production for the 70 countries/regions included in World Steel's statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Meanwhile, China's exports to countries such as Vietnam, South Korea, and India showed year-on-year declines in the first half of the year.

In summary, hot-rolled steel coilprices face support from below and pressure from above in September, and are expected to remain weak at a low level. This pressure comes from steel fundamentals, with previously suspended production capacity gradually resuming operations and slowing demand growth for coiled steel products, both of which are suppressing upward Steel Prices. However, under the influence of China's macroeconomic "anti-involution" policies, steel prices will not fall significantly.

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