Recently, China's hot and cold rolled steel market has slightly improved compared to the previous period, and prices have stopped falling and started to pick up.From the point of view of trading conditions, steel traders generally feel that sales are smoother than in the previous period, shipments have increased, downstream end-users purchasing willingness to enhance, although still basically just need-based, but the gradual release of demand, to support the steady climb in steel prices.
Relevant persons expect that in the short term, the hot rolled and cold rolled steel market will still maintain the current operating trend, and will rise steadily in the late stage, mainly due to the following aspects:
First, the downstream terminal effective demand to accelerate the release. Recently, the cold rolled coil, hot rolled steel coil consumption of large manufacturing industry production and sales conditions have improved.Data show that in March, China's auto production reached 2.794 million vehicles, up 6.5% year-on-year, of which the output of new energy vehicles reached 884,000 vehicles, up 33.5% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, China's automobile output reached 6.631 million units, up 5.3% year-on-year, of which the output of new-energy vehicles reached 2.076 million units, up 29.2% year-on-year.
In addition, automobile, home appliance export situation is also better, the export volume has increased. in March, China's exports of home appliances 318.8 million units, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, China's total exports of home appliances 950.78 million units, up 23.7%. In terms of automobiles, in March, China exported 490,000 cars, up 27.1% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, China's cumulative exports of automobiles 1.32 million units, up 23.9% year-on-year.
Automobile, home appliance production and sales continue to increase, will drive the demand for steel, including hot rolled cold rolled steel to accelerate the release of cold rolled and hot rolled coil market prices stabilized and strengthened.
Second, the market fundamentals of supply and demand conflicts have eased. Some time ago, under the influence of factors such as the obvious decline in industry profits and the obvious excess of supply over demand, the steel market was running in shock. To this end, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association issued the “Recognize the situation and maintain the determination to jointly maintain the stable and orderly development of the iron and steel industry,” the initiative, has been the positive response of the steel enterprises, steel enterprises to follow the “to meet the needs of users for the purpose of the principle of balance between supply and demand” self-discipline of the production mode, reduce the intensity of production, and reasonable control of inventories, has been reflected in some of the Data has been reflected.
On the supply side, the National Bureau of Statistics data show that in March, China's crude steel production reached 88.269 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 7.8%. Steel enterprises to reduce production, is conducive to easing the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, which in turn supports the stabilization and strengthening of steel prices. However, with the recent rise in steel prices, steel enterprises to increase production is expected to strengthen, steel production has a slight rebound. Data show that in mid-April, the average daily crude steel production of key statistical steel enterprises reached 2.11888 million tons, an increase of 0.33%, the same caliber than the same period last year fell 7.47%.
Inventories, in mid-April, the five major steel varieties in 21 cities across the country reached 12.37 million tons of social inventories, down 710,000 tons, down 5.4%; than the beginning of this year, an increase of 5.08 million tons, up 69.7%; than the same period last year, an increase of 670,000 tons, up 5.7%.
Third, the rigid cost support power is still strong. Recently, in the recovery of iron ore demand, steel enterprises to resume production is expected to be stronger factors such as the impact of iron ore prices rebounded significantly into April since the cumulative increase of 100 yuan / ton. Scrap steel prices rose a total of 70 yuan / ton, or 2.86%. Some coking enterprises also initiated a new round of coke price hikes. At present, the steel raw fuel prices showed a sustained upward trend, for the support of the finished product is increasing, favorable steel prices steady and strong.
Post time: May-06-2024