The latest data from the General Administration of Customs showed that in January-February 2024, China exported 15.912 million tonnes of steel, up 32.6% year-on-year; imported 1.131 million tonnes of steel, down 8.1% year-on-year. Net steel exports still show a sharp year-on-year growth.
In the export price advantage and relatively sufficient prior orders driven by the first 2 months of this year, China's steel exports rose sharply year-on-year, while steel imports continue to run a low trend. In the first 2 months of this year, China's net steel exports of 14.781 million tonnes, an increase of 34.9% year-on-year, the growth rate of last year's annual drop of 10.7 percentage points.
At the same time, China's steel exports, and imports of several features worthy of attention.
First, the global manufacturing sector is recovering steadily, while our foreign demand is still under pressure.
At present, the global manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) has improved, slightly better than in Q4 2023, indicating that the global economy is relatively stable. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing data show that in February 2024, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the second consecutive month above 49.0%, higher than the average level of 47.9% in the 4th quarter of 2023, indicating a steady recovery of the global manufacturing sector.
Domestically, in February, China's manufacturing new export orders index was 46.3 per cent, down 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier, reflecting some pressure on our external demand.
Secondly, supply in overseas steel markets continued to pick up.
In January 2024, global crude steel production showed a year-on-year decline. World Steel Association data show that in January, the global crude steel production of 71 countries and regions included in the statistics was 148.1 million tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%. During the same period, overseas steel production showed a year-on-year rebound.
In January 2024, steel production in countries and regions around the world other than China was 70.9 million tonnes, up 2.6 million tonnes from a year earlier, and up 7.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.0 percentage points compared with that in December last year, the data showed.
Third, China's steel export price advantage still exists.
At present, China's steel export price advantage still exists. Lange Steel Research Center monitoring data show that as of March 6, India, Turkey, the CIS countries, hot rolled steel coil export quotes (FOB) were 615 U.S. dollars/tonne, 670 U.S. dollars/tonne, 595 U.S. dollars/tonne, while China's hot rolled coil steel export quotes of 545 U.S. dollars/tonne, respectively, compared to the Indian export quotes lower than 70 U.S. dollars/tonne, lower than the Turkish 125 U.S. dollars/tonne, lower than the CIS countries is lower than 50 USD/tonne.
Fourth, China's steel export order index fell back into the contraction zone again.
From the steel industry export orders data, due to the recovery of overseas supply, China's steel industry export orders index is under pressure, in February, the new export orders index of steel enterprises was 47.0 per cent, down 4.0 percentage points, once again fell back to the contraction zone, which will be the later stage of China's steel exports to form a constraint.
Fifth, in the short term, steel exports will show year-on-year, chain ratios are slightly fluctuating trend.
Taking into account the first 2 months of this year, China's average monthly steel exports of 7.956 million tonnes, showing a high level of export trend, coupled with the March 2023 steel exports of 7.89 million tonnes, is expected to 2024 March China's steel exports year-on-year, chain ratio will show small fluctuations in trend.
Imports, the current domestic manufacturing boom is still running in the contraction zone, and the pull of steel demand is limited, while China's high-end steel import substitution capacity has increased significantly, China's steel imports are expected to maintain a low level later.
Post time: Mar-13-2024