Looking back at the market in the first half of 2023, the overall fluctuation of the national average price of cold rolling is small, far less than in 2022, and the market shows a trend of "low peak season and low season". Can simply divide the first half of the market into two stages, the first quarter, cold rolling spot prices in the strong expectations gradually pull up, and after the cold rolling market transactions are not hot, and there is still a gap with the normal level, in the reality of less than expected demand, market confidence has been significantly damaged; Cold rolled spot prices began to fall since mid-March, the market expected retaliatory increase in consumption did not come as scheduled, and the "strong expectation" was broken by the "weak reality". For the production end, the cost of raw materials such as iron ore continues to be high, resulting in high production costs for steel mills. Under the high production cost, the enthusiasm of steel mills is not reduced. These are closely related to the pattern of market supply and demand.
According to the General Administration of Customs data show: in June 2023, China's cold-rolled coil (plate) exports totaled 561,800 tons, down 9.2% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year. In June 2023, China's cold-rolled plate (strip) imports totaled 122,500 tons, down 26.3% month-on-month and down 25.9% year on year. From January to June in 2023, China's cold-rolled coil exports totaled 3,051,200 tons. From the specific data point of view, since February, the number of cold-rolled coil exports in China has been rising for three consecutive months, and the export performance is very bright. In May, with the US dollar exchange rate breaking "7" again, the growth rate of cold-rolled exports slowed down significantly. Overseas markets are gradually entering the off-season, and China's steel exports may appear weak in July and later. At the same time, the enthusiasm of some overseas countries to increase production continues to increase, the global steel supply and demand will gradually shift from a tight balance to a weak balance, and the overall liquidity will deteriorate. Therefore, it is expected that the remaining three or four quarters of steel exports will be weak as a whole.
On the whole, under the accumulation of contradictions between supply and demand, the focus of traders is still more inclined to actively go to the warehouse and withdraw funds. It can avoid short-term market risks, and it can cope with the speculative market in the later stage to do a good job of flexible operation reserves. Under the current big cycle, July and August are also the traditional off-season, the short-term recovery ability of terminal demand is relatively limited, the demand increment is still under pressure, and the price of cold-rolled sheet coil is likely to continue to be under pressure, and it is expected that there is limited stage upside space in the third quarter. For the market, more hope is placed on the supply side of the contraction, to alleviate the pressure brought by the contradiction between supply and demand. However, with the steady growth policy expected to strengthen, demand or will gradually improve, the fourth quarter of cold-rolled coil is expected to usher in a stage of the rebound, the height of the rebound depends on the recovery of cold-rolled coil/plate demand in the fourth quarter.
Post time: Sep-15-2023