For November, combined with the situation of various sub-indexes in the steel industry, the market supply side may continue to maintain a downward trend; and from the perspective of manufacturing orders and production conditions, the sustainability of demand is still insufficient, but short-term demand is stimulated by policies There is still a guarantee that the overall demand side may continue to show the characteristics of a phased release, the overall supply and demand side may still have a phased gap in
November, and steel prices may still have obvious recurrences.
As the most important leading indicator, the PMI index is of great significance to the steel industry. This article attempts to analyze the possible situation of the steel market in November by analyzing the steel industry PMI and manufacturing PMI data.
Analysis of steel PMI situation: market self-regulation continues
Judging from the steel industry PMI surveyed and released by the China Internet of Things Steel Logistics Professional Committee, it was 45.60% in October 2023, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous period.It is still 4.4 percentage points away from the 50% boom-bust line.The overall steel industry continues to shrink. From the perspective of sub-indexes, only the new orders index improved by 0.5 percentage points, and other sub-indexes declined to varying degrees compared with the previous period. However, from the perspective of the healthy development of the steel industry, the production index and finished product inventory The further decline will be more conducive to adjusting the current supply and demand contradiction in the market, and the decline in production enthusiasm will also help restrain the continued rise in current raw material prices.
In summary, the steel market in October continued the recent self-regulation of the market, reducing the contradiction between supply and demand through the continuous weakening of the supply side. However, the market itself has large production capacity, and the improvement of the industry still requires the efforts of the demand side.
Analysis of manufacturing PMI situation: Manufacturing industry is still at the bottom of shock
Data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing show that in October, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and once again fell below the 50% line of decline and prosperity. , there is still great variability in downstream demand for steel. From the perspective of sub-indexes, compared with last month, only production and business activity expectations and finished product inventory have increased to a certain extent. Among them, finished product inventory has increased significantly, but it is still below the 50% line of decline and prosperity, showing that The manufacturing industry is still in the destocking stage, but as the inventory base continues to decline, the extent of inventory reduction has narrowed. Looking at other sub-indices, orders on hand, new export orders, and new orders all declined slightly. Among them, the new orders index even dropped below the 50% line, indicating that the order situation of the manufacturing industry in October was lower than that in September. There has been a certain decline again, which has a negative impact on the sustainability of steel demand in the later period. It is worth noting that although the production index has declined, it still remains above the 50% boom-and-bust line, indicating that the production activities of the manufacturing industry are still in the expansion range. Combined with the increase in the expected index of production and operating activities, the market is optimistic about a series of stimulus policies. We still have an optimistic attitude, which also ensures the short-term demand for steel in the manufacturing industry.
In summary, the performance of the manufacturing industry in October was weaker than that in September, indicating that the current manufacturing market is still in the bottom shock zone. The improvement in September may only be a seasonal reflection, and the short-term development of the market is still full of major uncertainties.
Judgment on steel prices in November
Judging from the situation related to the steel industry and downstream manufacturing industries, the steel market supply continued to decrease in October, and demand weakened. The overall situation was weak in supply and demand. For November, combined with the situation of various sub-indexes in the steel industry , the market supply side may continue to maintain a downward trend; and from the perspective of manufacturing orders and production, the sustainability of demand is still insufficient, but short-term demand is still guaranteed under policy stimulation, and the overall demand side may continue to show a phased release Characteristics, the overall supply and demand side may still have a periodic gap in November, and steel prices may still be relatively repetitive.
Post time: Nov-09-2023