This year, China's "Silver Ten" period, cold rolled steel coil and hot rolled steel coil demand intensity failed to steel traders previously expected as strong, the market trading is cold.Cold rolled steel sheet, and hot rolled steel sheet prices shock operation, especially cold rolled steel coil prices fell significantly. Shanghai market, for example, Anshan Iron and Steel production 1.0 mm cold rolled steel plate prices from the beginning of October 5,000 yuan / tonne to the end of October 4830 yuan / tonne, down 170 yuan / tonne in a single month; Anshan Iron and Steel production 5.5 mm hot rolled steel coil prices from the beginning of October 3,810 yuan / tonne to the end of October 3,830 yuan / tonne, a small increase of 20 yuan / tonne in a single month.
Entering November, cold rolled steel coil and hot rolled steel coil market prices began to stabilise, and some varieties of prices rose steadily. In the first trading week of November, SPHC hot rolled coil prices in the Shanghai market rose a total of 20 yuan / tonne, Q235B hot rolled coil prices rose a total of 60 yuan / tonne. Overall, hot rolled steel coil supply and inventory remained down, and demand was still good. As for cold rolled coil, the price of cold rolled coil in Shanghai market rose RMB 30/tonne cumulatively.
For the late cold rolled steel coil and hot rolled steel in coil market trend, in the short term, cold rolled steel coil and hot rolled steel coil market prices are not likely to rise and fall, mainly due to the following reasons:
First, cold rolled steel coil and hot rolled steel coil market demand resilience still exists. At present, the cold rolled steel coil, hot rolled coil plate demand for large ships, automobiles, bridges, construction, machinery, pressure vessels and other manufacturing enterprises, production, sales and export conditions are good. China Shipbuilding Industry Association data show that the first three quarters of this year, China's shipbuilding capacity utilisation monitoring index (CCI) for 878 points, 161 points higher than the same period last year's 717 points, an increase of 22.5%. The production and sales volume of the automobile industry maintained a growth trend. Data showed that in September, China's automobile output reached 2.833 million units, up 3.4 per cent year-on-year. In the first nine months of this year, automobile output reached 20.905 million units, up 4.6% year-on-year. Construction machinery manufacturing industry business conditions turned good. China Machinery Industry Federation data show that in the first nine months of this year, China's machinery industry achieved a cumulative operating income of 21.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.8 per cent; total profit of 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2 per cent, operating income and profit growth rate is higher than the average level of the country's industry in the same period.
Export, home appliances, ships, construction machinery, automobiles and other manufacturing industries continue to grow. According to statistics, in September, China's exports of refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances products to maintain the momentum of growth, most of the industry's export market performance is better than domestic sales. For example, in the first nine months of this year, China's construction machinery exports amounted to 259.35 billion yuan, up 21.7 per cent year-on-year. It can be seen that the demand for ships, automobiles, home appliances, machinery and other manufacturing industry resilience still exists, which is conducive to the later cold rolled steel coil and hot rolled steel coil market prices stabilised.
Secondly, the supply of cold and hot rolled coils declined, easing the contradiction between supply and demand. Due to the decline in steel prices in the early stage, steel enterprises benefit contraction, some steel enterprises take the initiative to limit production, production cuts. According to estimates, steel enterprises electric furnace production tonnes of steel loss of 64 yuan, losses or greater in October. At the same time, in September China's crude steel production reached 82.108 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year. Into October and November, steel enterprises maintenance increased significantly. According to incomplete statistics, as of 31 October, there are 20 domestic steel enterprises issued overhaul information. China Iron and Steel Industry Association data show that in late October, the key statistics of steel enterprises daily crude steel production of 1,923,800 tonnes, down 5.65% from a decade ago; daily production of 1,816,700 tonnes of iron, down 4.03% from a decade ago; daily production of 2,064,800 tonnes of steel, an increase of 2.10% from a decade ago. Inventory, in late October, the 21 cities in china five varieties of steel social inventory reached 8.57 million tonnes, down 430,000 tonnes, down 4.8%, the rate of decline in inventories expanded.
Thirdly, steel raw fuel prices remain high, steel prices firm. According to the Steel Association on the September benchmarking tapping enterprise steel raw material procurement cost analysis shows that, in addition to scrap, benchmarking tapping enterprise other raw material varieties procurement cost are rising, the current production cost of steel enterprises is still at a high level. Affected by this, steel enterprises in determining the ex-factory price of steel to support the main price, which also to a certain extent to support the late cold, hot rolled coil market prices stabilised.
From Metallurgical News China
Post time: Nov-16-2023